We all love to predict the nominees for the Big 5 awards shows, but there are some that we just could not have seen coming. Using the community predictions from GoldDerby.com as a bit of guidance, here are our picks for the most shocking snubs and nominations from the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Actor Awards, Oscars, and BAFTA Film Awards from this awards season.
Critics’ Choice Awards
Nomination: Jay Kelly in Best Picture (29% predicted)
Noah Baumbach’s latest film got off to a flying start for this year’s awards season by scoring a surprise Best Picture nomination at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Along with nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Adam Sandler, it suggested a profitable season was to come for Jay Kelly. Ultimately, it wasn’t something that was repeated, as despite nods for Sandler and leading man George Clooney at the Golden Globes, the comedy-drama failed to score a single Oscar, BAFTA or Actor Awards nomination.
Snub: Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good in Best Actress (90% predicted)
Many were expecting a successful season for Cynthia Erivo, as she reprised her Oscar-nominated turn as Elphaba in the second part of the smash hit Wicked. This was evidenced by 90% of prognosticators on GoldDerby predicting her for a Critics Choice nomination for Wicked: For Good. Her absence here was a sign of things to come for the English actress, as she only received one major nomination all season, and Wicked: For Good went on to get snubbed in every single category at the Oscars. Quite the fall off from its predecessor’s 10 nominations last year!
Golden Globe Awards
Nomination: Nouvelle Value in Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy (0% predicted)
Not only the biggest shock of awards season this year, but one of the biggest in recent memory, saw Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague receive a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy. This was even more notable as the black and white French language film did not even receive a Best Foreign Language Film nomination. And not only was it the film’s only major nomination all season in any category, but it also wasn’t even expected to compete as a Musical or Comedy, with all indications suggesting that it was submitted as a Drama. Nominated over the likes of Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly and Wake Up Dead Man, it was one of two Linklater films nominated in the category, as Blue Moon also surprisingly appeared on the list, predicted by just 0.7% of GoldDerby users.
Snub: Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme in Best Director (69% predicted)
An otherwise ever-present in the Best Director category all season, Josh Safdie surprisingly missed a nomination at the Golden Globes, as Marty Supreme surprisingly underperformed on nominations morning. The HFPA chose instead to nominate Jafar Panahi, and were the only major group to recognise It Was Just an Accident in both the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Paul Thomas Anderson unsurprisingly won the award, while Marty Supreme did get recognised in the Best Actor- Musical or Comedy category as Timothee Chalamet took home the award, as 3 of the 4 lead acting winners came from films not nominated for Best Director.
The Actor Awards
Nomination: Miles Caton for Sinners in Best Supporting Actor (1% predicted)
If anyone was going to be a surprise nominee from Sinners in Best Supporting Actor at the Actor Awards, it was going to be Delroy Lindo, who eventually went on to receive a shock Oscar nomination. However, it was actually his co-star, Miles Caton, who ended up getting in, as predicted by just 1% of GoldDerby users. Taking advantage of SAG’s distaste for Sentimental Value (which we’ll get to), which saw Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgard absent from the category, the rising star scored his only nomination of the season, despite many considering his performance to be co-lead.
Snub: Renate Reinsve (66%), Elle Fanning (47%), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (12%), Stellan Skarsgård (95%), and Sentimental Value (37%) in all categories
Despite receiving 4 acting nominations at the Oscars, Sentimental Value could not get a single one at the Actor Awards, to the bemusement of many. It has largely been attributed to the Screen Actors’ Guild’s tendency to ignore non-English language films, despite the fact that they have awarded actors from films such as Parasite and Emilia Perez in the past. Even American actress Elle Fanning couldn’t get into Supporting Actress, even though she performs all of her scenes in English. SAG’s lack of respect for foreign language films has sparked debates about their authenticity, and ultimately, the snubbing of Joachim Trier’s film leaves a bitter taste.
The Academy Awards
Nomination: F1 in Best Picture (16% predicted)
While it was definitely touted as a potential contender, Joseph Kosinski’s summer blockbuster F1’s nomination in Best Picture still is one of the most nonsensical Academy choices for a long time. Going into Oscar nomination morning with just a PGA nomination and a few mentions in tech categories from precursors, F1 made no real analytical sense as a major contender, yet was widely seen as the alternative to It Was Just an Accident, a film that was drastically falling in odds, and has always been considered to be a risky choice for the Academy to go for. Ultimately, Kosinski’s film got in ahead of Panahi’s, even though it arguably underperformed on nominations morning, missing in both Original Score and Song for ‘Drive’. A film that surged late in the race, which is rare for a film released in July, F1 became the first film to not score a single acting, directing or writing nomination from any of the big 5 film awards to be nominated for Best Picture since Beauty and the Beast in 1991 (and even that was able to win the Golden Globe for Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy!).
Snub: Paul Mescal for Hamnet in Best Supporting Actor (94% predicted)
Considered to be the easiest category to predict going into Oscar nomination morning, Best Supporting Actor seemed like it was going to see the same 5 names that have popped up all season- Benicio Del Toro, Jacob Elordi, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård and Paul Mescal. However, despite receiving no other major precursor nominations, Delroy Lindo was able to sneak into the top 5 off the coattails of Sinners’ success (which saw the film score a record 16 nominations), at the expense of Hamnet star Mescal. The Irish actor, previously nominated for Best Actor in 2023 for Aftersun, became the first actor since Catrina Balfe (Belfast) and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) in 2022 to be nominated at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice Awards but miss an Oscar nomination. The same fate happened to Chase Infiniti in Best Actress for One Battle After Another, who was passed up on in favour of Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, which was the film’s only nomination.
The BAFTA Film Awards
Nomination: Peter Mullan for I Swear in Best Supporting Actor (4% predicted)
A small British film that was only a player this awards season within the UK, I Swear scored an impressive 5 nominations at this year’s BAFTA, including Best British Film, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Actor for leading man Robert Aramayo. The most surprising citation it received came in the Supporting Actor category, where Scottish character actor Peter Mullan was nominated for his portrayal of the kindly caretaker Tommy. Beating out tough competition from the likes of Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), and Oscar nominee Delroy Lindo (Sinners), recognition for Mullan’s fine work is a testament to how much BAFTA voters fell for Kirk Jones’ indie darling.
Snub: Amy Madigan for Weapons in Best Supporting Actress (96% predicted)
Despite Weapons not making a major splash on awards season this year, Amy Madigan has been a mainstay of the Best Supporting Actress category, including winning the Critics’ Choice Award. The only blot in her copy book came at the BAFTAs, where she missed out on a nomination in favour of Brits Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island) and Emily Watson (Hamnet), who both picked up their only major nominations of the season. Madigan and One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor have been neck-and-neck throughout the last few months, but Taylor is now looking increasingly likely to be the winner of the Oscar, especially if she can win the BAFTA in the absence of Madigan.
Joseph Trusson is a BA Graduate in Film and Television Studies from the University of Nottingham and an MA Graduate in Film Distribution and Marketing from Birmingham City University. He specialises in film awards analysis and hosts the Best Picture Must Be Doing Something Right Podcast, and is covering the 2025/26 Awards Season for Celestial Cinephile. You can find him on Letterboxd @JosephT.
