Best Motion Picture- Drama
Could Win: Hamnet
Should Win: Hamnet
Will Win: Sinners
With Best Picture frontrunner One Battle After Another competing in the Musical or Comedy categories, it presents the opportunity for another contender to pick up a major prize. Hamnet could become the second Chloe Zhao film to win this category, following Nomadland’s triumph in 2021. However, the predicted winner is Sinners, which has been very strong all season.
Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy
Could Win: Marty Supreme
Should Win: Blue Moon
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Usually the weaker of the two Best Picture categories at the Golden Globes, it is not the case this year as the Musical or Comedy side contains multiple strong contenders. That being said, if One Battle After Another doesn’t take this, it would be a major shock.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama
Could Win: Wagner Moura- The Secret Agent
Should Win: Joel Edgerton- Train Dreams
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan- Sinners
The favourite here is Wagner Moura as the HFPA has fully embraced Neon’s slate this year, and also awarded fellow Brazilian Fernanda Torres’ performance in I’m Still Here last year, demonstrating the group’s support for Brazilian cinema. However, Michael B. Jordan has shown himself to be the stronger contender so far this season, and I can see him taking this.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio- One Battle After Another
Should Win: Ethan Hawke- Blue Moon
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet- Marty Supreme
While Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke offer strong opposition, it looks like it will be another victory for Timothee Chalamet following his triumph at last week’s Critics’ Choice Awards.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama
Could Win: Renate Reinsve- Sentimental Value
Should Win: Jessie Buckley- Hamnet
Will Win: Jessie Buckley- Hamnet
Jessie Buckley will also repeat her victory from last week by winning here for her remarkable turn in Hamnet- a performance that will likely also earn her BAFTA and Oscar gold in the coming months.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy
Could Win: Chase Infiniti- One Battle After Another
Should Win: Rose Byrne- If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Will Win: Rose Byrne- If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
This category is full of strong contenders, and without Jessie Buckley in the mix, it is a tough one to call. Rose Byrne is the standout of the bunch, though, and is the favourite to win, but honestly, anything could happen.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgard- Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sean Penn- One Battle After Another
Will Win: Jacob Elordi- Frankenstein
Perhaps the most difficult category of all to call, the Supporting Actor race still doesn’t have a clear frontrunner. Jacob Elordi’s surprise Critics’ Choice win last week perhaps puts him just about in that number one spot, so I give him the slight edge to win here, but it is almost too close to call.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Could Win: Teyana Taylor- One Battle After Another
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas- Sentimental Value
Will Win: Amy Madigan- Weapons
Despite not seeming like a strong awards contender on paper, Amy Madigan has been the runaway frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress this year for her villainous turn in the horror film Weapons. It is difficult to predict against her, but watch out for Teyana Taylor, who could win if One Battle After Another sweeps.
Best Director
Could Win: Ryan Coogler- Sinners
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson- One Battle After Another
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson- One Battle After Another
Another straightforward win here for Paul Thomas Anderson.
Best Screenplay
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
Will Win: One Battle After Another
If One Battle After Another wins here, on a rare occasion where the Screenplay categories aren’t split between Original and Adapted, it will show how strong a contender it really is. It is the slight favourite over Sinners.
Best Animated Feature
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Should Win: Zootopia 2
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Despite missing out on a BAFTA longlist mention on Friday (due to it not receiving a UK theatrical release), KPop Demon Hunters should win here, despite strong competition from Zootopia 2.
Best Non-English Film
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
Will Win: It Was Just an Accident
Another really difficult one to call, given that four nominees are also nominated in the Best Motion Picture categories. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value all stand a very good chance, but this seems like an ideal opportunity for the HFPA to award Jafar Panahi, who is also up for Best Director and Best Screenplay for It Was Just an Accident.
Best Score
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: F1
Will Win: Sinners
A previous winner in this category for Oppenheimer, Ludwig Göransson will be picking up his second Golden Globe, this time for Sinners.
Best Song
Could Win: I Lied To You- Sinners
Should Win: Train Dreams- Train Dreams
Will Win: Golden- KPop Demon Hunters
The best bet in this category is to pick the song that the most people would have heard and has proven to be the most popular. In this case, it is undoubtedly “Golden”.
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Could Win: F1
Should Win: F1
Will Win: Sinners
Sinners will become the most awarded film of the night by taking the award in this ridiculous category that desperately needs ridding of if the Golden Globes want to continue to be taken seriously.
The 83rd Golden Globe Awards are on Sunday, 10th January 2026.
Joseph Trusson is a BA Graduate in Film and Television Studies from the University of Nottingham and an MA Graduate in Film Distribution and Marketing from Birmingham City University. He specialises in film awards analysis and hosts the Best Picture Must Be Doing Something Right Podcast, and is covering the 2025/26 Awards Season for Celestial Cinephile. You can find him on Letterboxd @JosephT.
