On Wednesday (7th January 2026), the Screen Actors Guild will announce their nominees for their 2026, which is now rebranded as The Actor Awards. SAG has often been a difficult group to predict, as they frequently nominate contenders who hadn’t even been considered by that point in the season. Notable shock nominations in recent years include Adam Sandler in Lead Actor for Hustle in 2023, Ben Affleck in Supporting Actor for The Tender Bar in 2022, and Emily Blunt in Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place in 2018, who won the award, helped by the absence of the eventual Oscar winner that year, Regina King.
King’s omission is an example of the notable surprise snubs that are equally common by the actors’ guild, such as last year, when Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones both missed out for their performances in The Brutalist, which gave awards prognosticators the impression that the film was not quite as strong in the awards race as once thought. It is also worth noting that this group often omits non-English language performances from their nominees, which could cast doubt on the chances for contenders such as Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas, and Stellan SkarsgÃ¥rd for Sentimental Value; Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, and Lee Byung-Hun for No Other Choice.
The reputation these awards have is that they are reliable indicators when it comes to predicting the Oscar race, particularly with their winners. At least two of the actors who have taken home individual prizes from SAG have replicated those wins at the Oscars every year since 2003. In that time frame, there have been 10 occasions where the two ceremonies have had the same quartet of winners.
The Actor Awards nominations will give us our last chance to get a real idea of who is getting Oscar-nominated this year, as, even though the BAFTA longlists will be revealed this coming Friday, we won’t get the BAFTA nominations until after the Academy has announced theirs. Last year saw 15/20 SAG Awards nominees crossover with the Oscars, and their nominations often indicate which performances are being liked and watched by the actors’ branch, many of whom are also Academy voters.
So, ultimately, expect most of the major contenders’ names to be called on Wednesday, but also expect some surprises. Here are our predictions:
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alt: Frankenstein
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet- Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio- One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton- Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke- Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan- Sinners
Alt: Wagner Moura- The Secret Agent
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley- Hamnet
Rose Byrne- If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti- One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve- Sentimental Value
Emma Stone- Bugonia
Alt: Kate Hudson- Song Sung Blue
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro- One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi- Frankenstein
Paul Mescal- Hamnet
Sean Penn- One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård- Sentimental Value
Alt: Adam Sandler- Jay Kelly
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning- Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas- Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan- Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku- Sinners
Teyana Taylor- One Battle After Another
Alt: Ariana Grande- Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1
Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alt: Ballerina
The nominations for the 2026 The Actor Awards are announced on Wednesday, 7th January 2026.
Joseph Trusson is a BA Graduate in Film and Television Studies from the University of Nottingham and an MA Graduate in Film Distribution and Marketing from Birmingham City University. He specialises in film awards analysis and hosts the Best Picture Must Be Doing Something Right Podcast, and is covering the 2025/26 Awards Season for Celestial Cinephile. You can find him on Letterboxd @JosephT.
